Daniel Yergin, chairamn of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, believes that gasoline demand will fall starting in 2012 as a result of several factors:

• Starting wit the 2012 model year, cars will have to hit a higher fuel economy target for the first time since 1990.  Each carmaker's fleet must average 30.1 mpg, up from 27.5 currently.  By the 2016 model year, that number must rise to 35.5 mpg.  Starting in 2011, SUVs and minivans will be included in the passenger car fleet mpg target.

• The automobile industry is introducing cars that run partially or entirely on electricity.  The federal government is providing billions of dollars in subsidies to increase sales.

• By 2022, the country's fuel mix must include 36 billion gallons of ethanol and other biofuels.  This is an increase from the 14 billion gallons in 2011.  Biofuels will account for 25% of gasoline sales.  This will decrease the amount of crude oil based gasoline sold.

• Internationally, gasoline prices are forecast to stay high as developing economies in Asia and the Middle East try to contain oil demand.

Source: "Gas-guzzling days are over for the U.S., experts say," The Dallas Morning News, December 21, 2010, p. 12A.

In contrast to Dr. Yergin's forecast, the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2011, forecasts the New Light Duty CAFE standards to increase 1.3% annually from 2009 to 2035 with most of this change taking place by 2016.  The EIA forecasts light-duty fuel use to increase 0.5% annually from 8.62 million barrels per day in 2009 to 9.84 million barrels per day in 2035.

Source: AEO2011 Early Release Overview, Table A7.

PetroStrategies tends to support the EIA forecast.